May. 31, 2013, 17:30 JST

Inflation is still beyond the horizon

Summary

In April 2013, the 10% trimmed CPI index fell by 0.4% YoY, unchanged from March. When we included the second decimal points, it was a slight improvement from -0.40% YoY in March to -0.38% YoY in April, but it is still hardly a sign of inflation.

When we compare our trimmed CPI measures with official CPI measures, we see that official CPI inflation measures are converging to the trimmed CPI measures. The deflation observed in the official CPI measures were mostly the effects of a few volatile items such as consumer electronics. -0.4% YoY seems to be the truer state of deflation in Japan.

 

Trimmed CPI index shows there is yet no inflationary trend

 

 

Top 10 volatile items that contributed to the decline in official CPI

 

 

 

Top 10 items volatile that contributed to the rise in official CPI