February 21, 2020

Japan Consumer Price Index

3 months after the sales tax hike, we see no apparent deflationary effects.

Published monthly by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. National CPI updated to the month of January 2020 (published on February 21st, 2020) and Tokyo CPI updated to the month of January 2020 (published on January 31st, 2020).

Recent data trend

In December 2019, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Japan rose to 0.8% YoY, up from 0.5% YoY in November. The inflation in the core CPI measure, excluding fresh food and energy, also rose, but only by a tick, up 0.9% YoY in December from 0.8% YoY in November. There seems to be a very moderate uptick in inflation in the past 3 months, but the degree of the rise is still too marginal to make much off. When the consumption tax rate was raised from 8% to 10%, there was a concern that it m...

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Brief overview of “Consumer Price Index”

Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the weighted average price level of goods and services consumers pay. Its weights are determined by the spending pattern of household in a standard year, currently set at 2015. The Bank of Japan targets its core measure, CPI excluding fresh food. The US-styled core measure, CPI excluding food and energy, is also published in the official statistics release. The government currently does not officially publish trimmed CPI measures. Monthly CPI reports are published toward the end of the following month. The preliminary CPI report for Tokyo area is published one month in advance and it is often regarded as a leading indicator for the national CPI.

Since the late 1990s, CPI in Japan has been on a very mild declining trend. Between 1998 and 2012, CPI fell by 3.9% or by 0.3% per year on average. Excluding food and energy, CPI declined by 6.4%, or by 0.6% per year on average in the same period. Japan had unusually lower CPI inflation than its global peers even prior to 1998. Between 1980 to 2000, average yearly inflation in Japan was 1.4%, sizably lower than the average of 3.6% in G7 countries. 

For more information, visit the official government page

National CPI by item

Source: MIAC, JMA.

Source: MIAC, JMA.

CPI and Sub-Components

Source: MIAC, JMA.

The Next Release Date: Tokyo CPI(February): February 28th, 2020

                                

                                

                                 

                                 

                               

                                

                              

                            

                              

                               

                                

                               

                                

                                  

                               

                              

                                

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