Published monthly by the BoJ. Updated till the month of December, 2016(Published on 7th February, 2017)
Recent Data Trend
Real consumption activity index, a synthesized index covering both goods and service to track Japan's consumption trend, deteriorated sharply in December by 1.0% month on month, adding to the dip of 0.2% suffered in November. By type of consumption, both durable goods and non-durable goods suffered sizable decline, by 2.3% and by 1.7% respectively. The consumption of service was stable, as it typically is in any month, but declined nevertheless by 0.2% in December. Private consumption was on a moderate uptrend in the second half of 2016, but the consumers seem to have got cold feel toward the end of the year, judging by the real consumption activity index.
The Consumption Activity Index (CAI) is published by the Bank of Japan on a monthly and quarterly basis as a measure of short term consumption activity of the households in the economy. The data is available in both nominal and real terms. The real CAI has three sub categories namely- Durable Goods Index, Non-durable Goods Index and Services Index. A variant of the Consumption Activity Index is “Consumption Activity Index Plus" that contains statistics on digital contents delivery services that have been growing since the end of the last decade. Another variant Consumption Activity Index (adjusting travel balance) excludes the consumption by foreign visitors that causes an upsurge in total spending and does not reflect the true spending pattern of the Japanese consumers.
The supply and sales side statistics used by the CAI are the same as that used for Private Consumption in the National Accounts statistics. The correlation coefficient between two indicators is quite high too. So, it can be assumed that CAI will be similar to Private Consumption in the National Accounts. The CAI has shown that private consumption in Japan has enjoyed a moderate recovery and expansion after the Great Recession between 2008-2009, but since 2014, we observe a stagnation in the consumption activities.
Consumption Activity Index(Quarterly)
Next Release Date: March 7th, 2017