Japan Avg. Duration of JGBs

At the end of December 2016, there were 874 trillion yen of JGBs outstanding and their average duration was 7.63 years.

Published monthly by Japan Macro Advisors. Updated to the month of December 2016 (published on January 6th, 2017)

Recent data trend:

Since 2008, the Japanese government has been extending the duration of JGBs.

Average duration of JGBs was extended from 4.9 years as of January 2008 to 7.63 years as of December 2016. In terms of the time to maturity, it was extended from 6.2 years as of January 2008 to 8.5 years as of December 2016. This duration extension was supported by the generally strong demand for JGBs in the aftermath of the great recession between 2008-09 as well as the appetite on the part of life insurance companies in Japan to extend the duration of their assets to match the duration of their liabilities. More recently, the BoJ has emerged as the dominant buyer of JGBs, effectively controlling the market.

Brief overview of  “Avg. Duration of JGBs”

We, Japan Macro Advisors, publish our monthly duration estimates for Japanese government bond (JGB) as well as Japanese government securities (JGS=JGB + TB). The Ministry of Finance does publish the average time to maturity of JGB in their quarterly newsletter series, but the definition is slightly incorrect. It only covers General Bond portion of the JGB, leaving out the FILP Bonds that account for 15% of the total JGBs. It also does not publish the duration information on TBs. Lastly there is a time lag. As of July 31 2013, the latest quarterly newsletter is that of April issue and it provides the duration information as of December 2012. We aim to supplement these shortcomings in frequency, coverage and timeliness. Our estimates start from 2008 and our estimates tend to have 3 months lag to real time.

The methodology and publication schedule of the indicator

The Next Release Date:  February 2nd, 2017.